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📊 Prediction Accuracy

37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Olin Paine 23.1% 23.0% 16.7% 11.8% 9.1% 6.2% 4.3% 3.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lukas Edegran 7.4% 7.6% 8.8% 7.9% 6.6% 10.6% 10.4% 9.4% 10.2% 8.0% 7.4% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
David Liebenberg 8.2% 8.2% 10.5% 8.9% 10.0% 10.3% 10.2% 11.8% 7.6% 8.3% 3.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
William Bowman 16.2% 16.1% 14.7% 13.9% 10.9% 8.8% 7.3% 6.3% 3.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tommy Holmberg 3.5% 4.6% 4.0% 5.0% 7.3% 6.3% 8.5% 9.2% 11.0% 11.8% 13.0% 8.8% 5.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Conor Cashel 3.8% 3.8% 5.5% 7.3% 8.1% 7.9% 6.8% 10.4% 9.6% 11.4% 12.0% 8.4% 4.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Nick Valente 7.5% 7.6% 7.4% 9.3% 8.6% 9.2% 10.1% 8.8% 11.2% 9.1% 5.9% 3.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Elyse Surette-DiMuzio 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 0.8% 1.7% 1.5% 2.1% 3.8% 5.7% 10.4% 16.4% 22.5% 20.2% 11.7%
Mary Loffredo 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 0.8% 1.6% 1.7% 2.5% 5.8% 10.8% 22.8% 51.4%
Scott Barnhill 1.2% 1.6% 1.5% 2.3% 1.7% 1.9% 3.6% 2.4% 4.5% 6.0% 10.2% 21.6% 20.8% 13.8% 5.3% 1.6%
Nate Jermain 12.0% 9.5% 10.2% 11.9% 9.8% 10.1% 9.8% 9.1% 7.5% 5.5% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Zachary Foreman 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 1.4% 1.4% 2.3% 1.9% 3.4% 5.6% 10.2% 18.6% 22.3% 19.7% 10.9%
Colin Keil 1.8% 1.1% 1.9% 3.1% 5.0% 4.5% 4.8% 5.5% 7.3% 11.2% 15.7% 17.0% 11.4% 7.9% 1.8% 0.0%
Andrew Bates 6.7% 6.6% 7.7% 8.1% 9.5% 10.2% 10.4% 8.7% 11.1% 9.3% 6.7% 3.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
William Iselin 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 3.5% 5.4% 11.6% 18.9% 29.6% 24.4%
Ian Storck 7.9% 7.8% 9.4% 8.7% 11.6% 10.6% 9.8% 9.7% 9.1% 7.3% 5.1% 1.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.