← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy4.16+3.89vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University4.67+1.60vs Predicted
-
3SUNY Maritime College3.00+5.54vs Predicted
-
4Washington College3.65+2.60vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland4.27-0.41vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-0.10vs Predicted
-
7Old Dominion University3.61-0.36vs Predicted
-
8University of Virginia1.83+3.96vs Predicted
-
9University of Pennsylvania2.68+0.76vs Predicted
-
10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-3.02vs Predicted
-
11Cornell University3.27-3.15vs Predicted
-
12Fordham University2.50-1.83vs Predicted
-
14George Washington University2.23-2.87vs Predicted
-
15Princeton University0.13+0.69vs Predicted
-
16Colgate University0.49-0.94vs Predicted
-
17Columbia University2.13-5.60vs Predicted
-
18Hampton University1.84-5.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.89U. S. Naval Academy4.160.1%1st Place
-
3.6Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
-
8.54SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
-
6.6Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
-
4.59St. Mary's College of Maryland4.270.1%1st Place
-
5.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
-
6.64Old Dominion University3.610.1%1st Place
-
11.96University of Virginia1.830.0%1st Place
-
9.76University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
-
6.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
-
7.85Cornell University3.270.1%1st Place
-
10.17Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
-
11.13George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
-
15.69Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
-
15.06Colgate University0.490.0%1st Place
-
11.4Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
-
12.24Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Sterling | 13.5% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Aras | 22.2% | 17.5% | 16.3% | 14.3% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Green | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Michael Whitford | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Kirkland | 14.7% | 15.9% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austen Anderson | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alan Alkins | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Gill | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 17.9% | 12.7% | 3.3% |
| Michael Russom | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Daniel Liberty | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 0.6% |
| Meredith Carroll | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 6.7% | 1.7% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 22.2% | 54.4% |
| Morgan Beals | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 12.1% | 30.1% | 34.4% |
| David Coplon | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 7.4% | 1.7% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 17.7% | 14.1% | 3.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.