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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.04+3.17vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.13+5.45vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.77+2.36vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.38-0.37vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20-0.87vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.65+2.33vs Predicted
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7George Washington University0.96+0.36vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-2.11vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia-0.03+0.87vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-3.56vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.95-3.32vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.79-0.65vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.20-3.34vs Predicted
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14American University-2.91-0.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.17U. S. Naval Academy2.0417.0%1st Place
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7.45Fordham University1.135.2%1st Place
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5.36University of Pennsylvania1.779.9%1st Place
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3.63Cornell University2.3820.2%1st Place
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4.13Georgetown University2.2016.6%1st Place
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8.33Christopher Newport University0.653.8%1st Place
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7.36George Washington University0.965.2%1st Place
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5.89St. Mary's College of Maryland1.767.5%1st Place
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9.87University of Virginia-0.031.6%1st Place
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6.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.976.0%1st Place
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7.68Old Dominion University0.954.1%1st Place
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11.35Princeton University-0.790.9%1st Place
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9.66Washington College0.202.1%1st Place
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13.67American University-2.910.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eva Blauvelt | 17.0% | 15.7% | 14.4% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 20.2% | 18.4% | 15.8% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 16.6% | 15.2% | 14.6% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 0.4% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| Madison Bashaw | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 14.2% | 21.1% | 17.1% | 1.9% |
| Heather Kerns | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 0.3% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 44.1% | 8.9% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 15.4% | 19.4% | 14.8% | 1.5% |
| Julia Kane | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 7.0% | 86.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.