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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+5.47vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.77+3.33vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.38+0.61vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.04+0.20vs Predicted
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5George Washington University0.96+2.52vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.13+1.52vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.20-2.95vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-2.12vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University0.95-1.30vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.20-0.50vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.65-2.68vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.79-0.51vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia-0.03-3.20vs Predicted
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14American University-2.91-0.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.977.1%1st Place
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5.33University of Pennsylvania1.7710.3%1st Place
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3.61Cornell University2.3821.8%1st Place
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4.2U. S. Naval Academy2.0415.2%1st Place
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7.52George Washington University0.964.3%1st Place
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7.52Fordham University1.134.2%1st Place
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4.05Georgetown University2.2017.1%1st Place
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5.88St. Mary's College of Maryland1.767.5%1st Place
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7.7Old Dominion University0.954.0%1st Place
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9.5Washington College0.202.5%1st Place
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8.32Christopher Newport University0.653.5%1st Place
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11.49Princeton University-0.790.5%1st Place
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9.8University of Virginia-0.031.9%1st Place
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13.61American University-2.910.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heather Kerns | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 10.3% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 21.8% | 19.1% | 14.5% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 15.2% | 14.3% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.1% | 16.1% | 15.0% | 14.1% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 0.4% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 14.2% | 20.1% | 14.6% | 1.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 5.1% | 0.5% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 14.6% | 43.1% | 10.6% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 21.3% | 16.7% | 2.3% |
| Julia Kane | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 8.1% | 84.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.