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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.38+2.60vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University0.95+5.60vs Predicted
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3George Washington University0.96+4.38vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.77+1.30vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+0.93vs Predicted
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6Washington College0.20+3.60vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.04-2.77vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia-0.03+1.93vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-2.60vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.65-1.61vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.20-6.91vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.13-4.50vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.79-1.58vs Predicted
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14American University-2.91-0.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.6Cornell University2.3820.8%1st Place
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7.6Old Dominion University0.955.2%1st Place
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7.38George Washington University0.965.1%1st Place
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5.3University of Pennsylvania1.7710.5%1st Place
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5.93St. Mary's College of Maryland1.768.0%1st Place
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9.6Washington College0.201.6%1st Place
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4.23U. S. Naval Academy2.0416.5%1st Place
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9.93University of Virginia-0.031.6%1st Place
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6.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.975.5%1st Place
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8.39Christopher Newport University0.653.5%1st Place
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4.09Georgetown University2.2016.3%1st Place
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7.5Fordham University1.134.5%1st Place
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11.42Princeton University-0.790.8%1st Place
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13.64American University-2.910.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 20.8% | 18.9% | 15.6% | 13.7% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 0.2% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 10.5% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Kennedy Jones | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 15.0% | 19.1% | 14.6% | 1.7% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 16.5% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 11.7% | 15.9% | 19.7% | 18.2% | 1.6% |
| Heather Kerns | 5.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 14.7% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 5.9% | 0.5% |
| Piper Holthus | 16.3% | 16.2% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 0.1% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 9.2% | 15.7% | 43.4% | 8.6% |
| Julia Kane | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 6.6% | 87.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.