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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.38+2.63vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+3.98vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+3.52vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.20+0.02vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.13+2.41vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.04-1.68vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.77-1.65vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia-0.03+1.76vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.20+0.57vs Predicted
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10George Washington University0.96-2.53vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.95-3.35vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.65-3.75vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.79-1.56vs Predicted
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14American University-2.91-0.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.63Cornell University2.3820.1%1st Place
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5.98St. Mary's College of Maryland1.768.2%1st Place
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6.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.976.6%1st Place
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4.02Georgetown University2.2018.2%1st Place
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7.41Fordham University1.134.2%1st Place
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4.32U. S. Naval Academy2.0414.8%1st Place
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5.35University of Pennsylvania1.7710.3%1st Place
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9.76University of Virginia-0.032.1%1st Place
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9.57Washington College0.201.6%1st Place
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7.47George Washington University0.964.5%1st Place
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7.65Old Dominion University0.954.7%1st Place
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8.25Christopher Newport University0.653.6%1st Place
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11.44Princeton University-0.791.1%1st Place
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13.62American University-2.910.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 20.1% | 18.2% | 16.4% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Heather Kerns | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 18.2% | 17.0% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 14.8% | 15.0% | 14.8% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 14.7% | 20.4% | 17.4% | 2.1% |
| Kennedy Jones | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 14.5% | 20.1% | 14.6% | 1.8% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 5.5% | 0.4% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 15.5% | 44.0% | 9.2% |
| Julia Kane | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 7.0% | 86.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.