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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+5.34vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.13+5.29vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+2.94vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.04+0.10vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.65+3.14vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.95+1.75vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.45-0.23vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.07-1.05vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.20-5.14vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.79+1.36vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.38-7.44vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia-0.03-2.17vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.20-3.53vs Predicted
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14American University-2.91-0.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.977.2%1st Place
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7.29Fordham University1.134.8%1st Place
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5.94St. Mary's College of Maryland1.768.1%1st Place
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4.1U. S. Naval Academy2.0415.1%1st Place
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8.14Christopher Newport University0.653.0%1st Place
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7.75Old Dominion University0.954.5%1st Place
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6.77University of Pennsylvania1.455.7%1st Place
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6.95George Washington University1.075.1%1st Place
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3.86Georgetown University2.2019.9%1st Place
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11.36Princeton University-0.791.2%1st Place
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3.56Cornell University2.3821.6%1st Place
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9.83University of Virginia-0.031.8%1st Place
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9.47Washington College0.202.0%1st Place
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13.63American University-2.910.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heather Kerns | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
Elizabeth Cutler | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
Madison Bashaw | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
Eva Blauvelt | 15.1% | 17.6% | 15.5% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Grace Watlington | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 5.5% | 0.3% |
Elizabeth Gildea | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 0.2% |
Madeleine Rice | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
Piper Holthus | 19.9% | 16.9% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Bracklinn Williams | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 15.2% | 43.0% | 9.0% |
Bridget Green | 21.6% | 18.4% | 15.7% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Anna Groszkowski | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 21.4% | 17.9% | 2.1% |
Kennedy Jones | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 19.8% | 13.8% | 1.5% |
Julia Kane | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 7.2% | 86.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.