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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+2.55vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.88+3.27vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+2.43vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.45+2.22vs Predicted
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5George Washington University0.96+1.93vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.13+0.80vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.04-3.21vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University0.95-0.90vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-3.14vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.65-2.41vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia-0.03-1.85vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.79-1.41vs Predicted
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13American University-2.91-0.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.55Georgetown University2.2021.4%1st Place
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5.27Cornell University1.8810.4%1st Place
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5.43St. Mary's College of Maryland1.769.3%1st Place
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6.22University of Pennsylvania1.457.4%1st Place
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6.93George Washington University0.965.6%1st Place
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6.8Fordham University1.136.2%1st Place
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3.79U. S. Naval Academy2.0419.6%1st Place
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7.1Old Dominion University0.954.6%1st Place
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5.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.978.4%1st Place
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7.59Christopher Newport University0.653.8%1st Place
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9.15University of Virginia-0.032.2%1st Place
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10.59Princeton University-0.791.1%1st Place
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12.71American University-2.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 21.4% | 19.1% | 16.1% | 14.1% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Moran | 10.4% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 9.3% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 0.2% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 19.6% | 16.8% | 16.6% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 4.9% | 0.3% |
| Heather Kerns | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 7.9% | 0.4% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 22.6% | 21.3% | 1.7% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 15.4% | 46.5% | 9.2% |
| Julia Kane | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 6.6% | 87.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.