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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.51+2.00vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.88+2.16vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.52+2.08vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.43+3.91vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.40+0.50vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.74-1.32vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.85-2.83vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University1.15+0.44vs Predicted
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9William and Mary0.36+1.41vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.31+0.53vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.24-2.61vs Predicted
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12Columbia University1.30-3.79vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.03-2.07vs Predicted
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14Queen's University-2.13-0.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.0St. Mary's College of Maryland3.510.3%1st Place
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4.16U. S. Naval Academy2.880.2%1st Place
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5.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.520.1%1st Place
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7.91Fordham University1.430.0%1st Place
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5.5Old Dominion University2.400.1%1st Place
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4.68Georgetown University2.740.1%1st Place
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4.17Cornell University2.850.1%1st Place
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8.44Christopher Newport University1.150.0%1st Place
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10.41William and Mary0.360.0%1st Place
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10.53Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
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8.39George Washington University1.240.0%1st Place
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8.21Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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10.93Washington College0.030.0%1st Place
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13.59Queen's University-2.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla McComb | 28.0% | 21.2% | 17.6% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marissa Lihan | 15.1% | 15.3% | 14.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liana Folger | 9.2% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Sims | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 15.9% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 0.2% |
| Rachel Austin | 7.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 13.8% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 11.3% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 14.8% | 15.7% | 12.8% | 15.7% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Buhl | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 15.5% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 5.9% | 0.3% |
| Kaitlynn Menoche | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 17.2% | 22.1% | 19.8% | 3.9% |
| Adrija Navarro | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 12.7% | 15.0% | 19.3% | 22.0% | 4.8% |
| Alex Hitchcock | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 0.8% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 0.3% |
| Siobhan Ryan | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 20.8% | 30.2% | 6.2% |
| Nicole Czegledy | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 8.1% | 83.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.