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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.45+5.13vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.04+1.71vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.88+2.16vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.20-0.38vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+0.46vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.13+0.85vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.95+0.22vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia-0.03+1.12vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-2.95vs Predicted
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10George Washington University0.96-3.25vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.65-3.38vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.79-1.38vs Predicted
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13American University-2.91-0.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.13University of Pennsylvania1.457.3%1st Place
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3.71U. S. Naval Academy2.0419.9%1st Place
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5.16Cornell University1.8810.4%1st Place
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3.62Georgetown University2.2021.3%1st Place
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5.46St. Mary's College of Maryland1.769.1%1st Place
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6.85Fordham University1.135.9%1st Place
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7.22Old Dominion University0.954.9%1st Place
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9.12University of Virginia-0.032.4%1st Place
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6.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.977.0%1st Place
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6.75George Washington University0.965.8%1st Place
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7.62Christopher Newport University0.655.2%1st Place
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10.62Princeton University-0.790.8%1st Place
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12.72American University-2.910.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeleine Rice | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 19.9% | 16.7% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Moran | 10.4% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 21.3% | 18.1% | 16.2% | 13.4% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 9.1% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 4.2% | 0.3% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 23.9% | 20.5% | 1.9% |
| Heather Kerns | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 8.1% | 0.4% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 13.6% | 50.5% | 7.3% |
| Julia Kane | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 5.3% | 89.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.