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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.72+3.35vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.79+1.86vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University1.37+2.03vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.68+2.44vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.54+3.06vs Predicted
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6George Washington University0.93+0.18vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61-0.40vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-1.61vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University-0.84-0.98vs Predicted
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10Washington College-0.68+0.25vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia-0.72-0.56vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy0.52-4.85vs Predicted
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13American University-0.91-2.02vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.97-2.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.35University of Pennsylvania1.7216.4%1st Place
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3.86Cornell University1.7919.9%1st Place
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5.03Georgetown University1.3713.2%1st Place
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6.44Old Dominion University0.688.0%1st Place
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8.06Fordham University0.544.2%1st Place
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6.18George Washington University0.937.6%1st Place
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6.6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.616.5%1st Place
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6.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.917.8%1st Place
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8.02Christopher Newport University-0.844.0%1st Place
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10.25Washington College-0.682.2%1st Place
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10.44University of Virginia-0.721.8%1st Place
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7.15U. S. Naval Academy0.525.7%1st Place
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10.98American University-0.911.3%1st Place
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11.24Princeton University-0.971.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | 16.4% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 19.9% | 17.6% | 14.7% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Riley Kloc | 13.2% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Megan Geith | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 2.7% |
| Avery Canavan | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Lily Flack | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Laura Smith | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 3.1% |
| Hartley Meyer | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 11.9% | 15.4% | 17.0% | 16.2% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 16.1% | 18.5% | 18.4% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Anika Liner | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 19.7% | 26.5% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 19.2% | 29.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.