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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.72+3.43vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy0.52+5.15vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61+3.51vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.68+2.65vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.79-1.28vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+0.49vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University1.37-1.99vs Predicted
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8Fordham University0.54+0.03vs Predicted
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9George Washington University0.93-2.96vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia-0.72+0.56vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.13vs Predicted
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12Washington College-0.68-1.64vs Predicted
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13American University-0.91-2.12vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.97-2.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.43University of Pennsylvania1.7216.2%1st Place
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7.15U. S. Naval Academy0.526.3%1st Place
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6.51St. Mary's College of Maryland0.618.2%1st Place
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6.65Old Dominion University0.686.4%1st Place
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3.72Cornell University1.7919.6%1st Place
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6.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.917.6%1st Place
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5.01Georgetown University1.3712.3%1st Place
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8.03Fordham University0.544.0%1st Place
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6.04George Washington University0.938.3%1st Place
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10.56University of Virginia-0.721.2%1st Place
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7.87Christopher Newport University-0.845.1%1st Place
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10.36Washington College-0.681.7%1st Place
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10.88American University-0.911.8%1st Place
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11.28Princeton University-0.971.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
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Torrey Chisari | 16.2% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Aubin Hattendorf | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
Lily Flack | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
Megan Geith | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
Sophia Devling | 19.6% | 18.2% | 16.3% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Elizabeth Starck | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
Riley Kloc | 12.3% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Caroline Sandoval | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 2.5% |
Avery Canavan | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
Lydia Sweeney | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 20.2% | 17.9% |
Laura Smith | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 3.1% |
Hartley Meyer | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 15.1% | 17.8% | 16.6% |
Anika Liner | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 18.9% | 24.1% |
Evelyn Walsh | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 18.4% | 32.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.