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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+6.68vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.78+5.60vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.68+3.89vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.73+1.33vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College1.20+6.58vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.73+0.26vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.18-2.50vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+0.91vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.38-0.50vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.59+1.94vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.06+0.61vs Predicted
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12Boston College1.97-3.24vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.22-5.65vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College2.34-6.74vs Predicted
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15Boston University0.97-4.01vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University0.97-1.60vs Predicted
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17Fairfield University0.42-3.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.68U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.326.9%1st Place
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7.6University of Rhode Island2.785.9%1st Place
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6.89Roger Williams University2.687.2%1st Place
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5.33Yale University2.7312.4%1st Place
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11.58Connecticut College1.202.4%1st Place
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6.26Brown University2.739.1%1st Place
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4.5Harvard University3.1817.6%1st Place
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8.91Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.1%1st Place
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8.5Bowdoin College2.385.2%1st Place
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11.94Northeastern University1.592.1%1st Place
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11.61University of Vermont1.062.2%1st Place
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8.76Boston College1.974.7%1st Place
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7.35Tufts University2.227.2%1st Place
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7.26Dartmouth College2.347.4%1st Place
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10.99Boston University0.972.1%1st Place
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14.4Salve Regina University0.970.7%1st Place
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13.44Fairfield University0.421.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jack Egan | 12.4% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 8.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 9.1% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 17.6% | 15.4% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 13.9% | 11.8% |
| Ethan Burt | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 7.6% |
| Peter Joslin | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Chase Decker | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 5.3% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 10.4% | 17.2% | 40.4% |
| Nolan Cooper | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 20.5% | 22.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.