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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University1.37+3.92vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy0.52+5.25vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61+3.62vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.54+4.08vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.79-1.28vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.72-1.68vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.68-0.40vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-1.65vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University-0.84-1.04vs Predicted
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10George Washington University0.93-3.92vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-0.97+0.27vs Predicted
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12American University-0.91-0.94vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia-0.72-2.49vs Predicted
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14Washington College-0.68-3.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.92Georgetown University1.3712.8%1st Place
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7.25U. S. Naval Academy0.525.7%1st Place
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6.62St. Mary's College of Maryland0.617.4%1st Place
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8.08Fordham University0.544.5%1st Place
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3.72Cornell University1.7921.4%1st Place
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4.32University of Pennsylvania1.7214.3%1st Place
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6.6Old Dominion University0.686.3%1st Place
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6.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.918.2%1st Place
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7.96Christopher Newport University-0.844.8%1st Place
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6.08George Washington University0.938.4%1st Place
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11.27Princeton University-0.971.8%1st Place
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11.06American University-0.911.6%1st Place
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10.51University of Virginia-0.721.1%1st Place
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10.28Washington College-0.681.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Kloc | 12.8% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Lily Flack | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 3.3% |
| Sophia Devling | 21.4% | 17.2% | 15.7% | 13.6% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 14.3% | 15.8% | 15.5% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Megan Geith | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Laura Smith | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 2.5% |
| Avery Canavan | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 13.2% | 19.1% | 31.1% |
| Anika Liner | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 21.4% | 25.1% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 14.8% | 18.5% | 18.3% |
| Hartley Meyer | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 14.5% | 17.0% | 16.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.