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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.72+3.35vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.79+1.71vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61+3.58vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.54+4.00vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy0.52+1.99vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+0.52vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.68-0.39vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University1.37-3.07vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University-0.84-0.98vs Predicted
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10George Washington University0.93-3.95vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.68-0.54vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.97-0.66vs Predicted
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13American University-0.91-2.12vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia-0.72-3.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.35University of Pennsylvania1.7215.8%1st Place
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3.71Cornell University1.7921.1%1st Place
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6.58St. Mary's College of Maryland0.616.7%1st Place
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8.0Fordham University0.544.3%1st Place
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6.99U. S. Naval Academy0.526.2%1st Place
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6.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.916.8%1st Place
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6.61Old Dominion University0.686.8%1st Place
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4.93Georgetown University1.3712.3%1st Place
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8.02Christopher Newport University-0.844.5%1st Place
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6.05George Washington University0.939.2%1st Place
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10.46Washington College-0.681.7%1st Place
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11.34Princeton University-0.971.2%1st Place
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10.88American University-0.911.5%1st Place
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10.56University of Virginia-0.721.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | 15.8% | 15.5% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 21.1% | 17.8% | 15.2% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lily Flack | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 2.6% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Megan Geith | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Riley Kloc | 12.3% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 2.8% |
| Avery Canavan | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Hartley Meyer | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 15.3% | 17.6% | 16.4% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 21.4% | 29.7% |
| Anika Liner | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 17.8% | 26.2% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 16.8% | 17.6% | 18.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.