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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University1.37+4.01vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.72+2.33vs Predicted
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3Fordham University0.54+5.09vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.79-0.24vs Predicted
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5George Washington University0.93+1.17vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+0.48vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy0.52+0.10vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University0.68-1.54vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61-2.39vs Predicted
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10Washington College-0.68+0.29vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.00vs Predicted
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12American University-0.91-1.01vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.97-1.79vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia-0.72-3.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.01Georgetown University1.3713.2%1st Place
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4.33University of Pennsylvania1.7216.2%1st Place
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8.09Fordham University0.543.6%1st Place
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3.76Cornell University1.7920.9%1st Place
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6.17George Washington University0.937.6%1st Place
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6.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.917.1%1st Place
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7.1U. S. Naval Academy0.526.9%1st Place
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6.46Old Dominion University0.687.3%1st Place
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6.61St. Mary's College of Maryland0.616.8%1st Place
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10.29Washington College-0.681.4%1st Place
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8.0Christopher Newport University-0.844.1%1st Place
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10.99American University-0.911.6%1st Place
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11.21Princeton University-0.971.2%1st Place
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10.51University of Virginia-0.722.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Kloc | 13.2% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Torrey Chisari | 16.2% | 16.2% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 1.9% |
| Sophia Devling | 20.9% | 17.8% | 15.5% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Megan Geith | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Lily Flack | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Hartley Meyer | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 14.6% | 17.2% | 16.1% |
| Laura Smith | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 2.5% |
| Anika Liner | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 19.4% | 27.6% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 19.9% | 29.6% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 14.8% | 18.0% | 18.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.