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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.50+4.06vs Predicted
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2Columbia University1.30+6.05vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.52+2.07vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.85+0.34vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.40+0.46vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.43+2.03vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.88-2.92vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.74-3.42vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.67-4.19vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.31+0.57vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.56-0.99vs Predicted
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12William and Mary0.36-1.61vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.03-2.04vs Predicted
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14Queen's University-2.13-0.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.06St. Mary's College of Maryland2.500.1%1st Place
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8.05Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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5.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.520.1%1st Place
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4.34Cornell University2.850.1%1st Place
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5.46Old Dominion University2.400.1%1st Place
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8.03Fordham University1.430.0%1st Place
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4.08U. S. Naval Academy2.880.2%1st Place
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4.58Georgetown University2.740.1%1st Place
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4.81George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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10.57Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
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10.01Christopher Newport University0.560.0%1st Place
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10.39William and Mary0.360.0%1st Place
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10.96Washington College0.030.0%1st Place
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13.57Queen's University-2.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marissa Golison | 10.6% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 15.6% | 12.3% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Liana Folger | 12.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 14.4% | 15.3% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Austin | 8.4% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Sims | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 14.7% | 14.5% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 0.1% |
| Marissa Lihan | 18.0% | 16.0% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 13.9% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah McNomee | 11.8% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrija Navarro | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 4.9% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 17.9% | 20.0% | 20.9% | 5.0% |
| Grace Bluefeld | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 17.6% | 18.4% | 15.8% | 1.8% |
| Kaitlynn Menoche | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 14.0% | 16.2% | 18.8% | 19.6% | 4.1% |
| Siobhan Ryan | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 21.8% | 29.0% | 5.6% |
| Nicole Czegledy | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 8.1% | 83.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.