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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.72+3.21vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy0.52+4.85vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+3.15vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.79-0.24vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.54+2.66vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.68+0.33vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61-0.60vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University-0.84-0.50vs Predicted
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9George Washington University0.93-3.00vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University1.37-5.16vs Predicted
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11American University-0.91-0.45vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia-0.72-1.96vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.97-2.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.21University of Pennsylvania1.7216.3%1st Place
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6.85U. S. Naval Academy0.525.7%1st Place
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6.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.918.5%1st Place
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3.76Cornell University1.7919.9%1st Place
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7.66Fordham University0.544.5%1st Place
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6.33Old Dominion University0.687.4%1st Place
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6.4St. Mary's College of Maryland0.617.2%1st Place
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7.5Christopher Newport University-0.844.9%1st Place
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6.0George Washington University0.938.3%1st Place
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4.84Georgetown University1.3713.2%1st Place
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10.55American University-0.911.2%1st Place
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10.04University of Virginia-0.721.9%1st Place
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10.72Princeton University-0.971.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | 16.3% | 16.0% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 1.4% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Sophia Devling | 19.9% | 17.1% | 16.7% | 13.2% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 4.2% |
| Megan Geith | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Lily Flack | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Laura Smith | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 3.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Riley Kloc | 13.2% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Anika Liner | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 22.3% | 30.6% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 16.0% | 21.6% | 21.1% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 12.8% | 21.3% | 35.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.