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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University0.54+6.75vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University0.68+4.37vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+3.28vs Predicted
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4George Washington University0.93+1.90vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.72-0.80vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy0.52+0.77vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University1.37-2.28vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61-1.62vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.79-5.34vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia-0.72-0.10vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.18vs Predicted
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12American University-0.91-1.51vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.97-2.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.75Fordham University0.544.2%1st Place
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6.37Old Dominion University0.687.8%1st Place
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6.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.916.8%1st Place
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5.9George Washington University0.938.6%1st Place
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4.2University of Pennsylvania1.7215.9%1st Place
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6.77U. S. Naval Academy0.526.2%1st Place
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4.72Georgetown University1.3713.8%1st Place
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6.38St. Mary's College of Maryland0.616.9%1st Place
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3.66Cornell University1.7920.8%1st Place
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9.9University of Virginia-0.722.3%1st Place
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7.82Christopher Newport University-0.844.3%1st Place
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10.49American University-0.911.2%1st Place
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10.75Princeton University-0.971.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Sandoval | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% |
| Megan Geith | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 0.7% |
| Avery Canavan | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Torrey Chisari | 15.9% | 16.7% | 13.6% | 13.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Riley Kloc | 13.8% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Lily Flack | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 20.8% | 18.6% | 16.0% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 20.3% | 21.6% |
| Laura Smith | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 3.6% |
| Anika Liner | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 13.8% | 22.1% | 29.9% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 12.6% | 22.1% | 35.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.