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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University0.93+4.96vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.79+1.70vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+3.18vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.68+2.38vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.72-0.76vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University1.37-1.16vs Predicted
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7Fordham University0.54+0.72vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University-0.84-0.44vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy0.52-2.20vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61-3.52vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia-0.72-1.03vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.97-1.33vs Predicted
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13American University-0.91-2.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.96George Washington University0.938.0%1st Place
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3.7Cornell University1.7921.6%1st Place
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6.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.917.2%1st Place
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6.38Old Dominion University0.685.1%1st Place
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4.24University of Pennsylvania1.7215.8%1st Place
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4.84Georgetown University1.3714.5%1st Place
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7.72Fordham University0.544.8%1st Place
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7.56Christopher Newport University-0.844.5%1st Place
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6.8U. S. Naval Academy0.526.7%1st Place
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6.48St. Mary's College of Maryland0.617.0%1st Place
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9.97University of Virginia-0.722.1%1st Place
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10.67Princeton University-0.971.2%1st Place
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10.47American University-0.911.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery Canavan | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Sophia Devling | 21.6% | 17.2% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Megan Geith | 5.1% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Torrey Chisari | 15.8% | 16.4% | 15.2% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Riley Kloc | 14.5% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 8.6% | 4.0% |
| Laura Smith | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 3.5% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 4.6% | 1.3% |
| Lily Flack | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 21.4% | 21.9% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 13.9% | 21.3% | 34.5% |
| Anika Liner | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 13.1% | 21.6% | 31.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.