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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College3.65+5.35vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.67+1.60vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+2.81vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland4.27+0.80vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.50+5.04vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.68+3.79vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+0.16vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.61-1.45vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy4.16-3.90vs Predicted
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10Cornell University3.27-2.43vs Predicted
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12Columbia University2.13-0.62vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.00-4.45vs Predicted
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14Colgate University0.49+1.12vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia1.83-2.72vs Predicted
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16Hampton University1.84-3.90vs Predicted
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17George Washington University2.23-5.92vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.13-2.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.35Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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3.6Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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5.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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4.8St. Mary's College of Maryland4.270.1%1st Place
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10.04Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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9.79University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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7.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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6.55Old Dominion University3.610.1%1st Place
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5.1U. S. Naval Academy4.160.1%1st Place
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7.57Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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11.38Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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8.55SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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15.12Colgate University0.490.0%1st Place
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12.28University of Virginia1.830.0%1st Place
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12.1Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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11.08George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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15.74Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Whitford | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Evan Aras | 22.6% | 17.5% | 16.3% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austen Anderson | 10.0% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Kirkland | 14.2% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 1.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 0.7% |
| Michael Russom | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Liberty | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alan Alkins | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Martin Sterling | 10.3% | 12.8% | 14.8% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 13.1% | 14.9% | 12.9% | 7.9% | 1.6% |
| Ted Green | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Beals | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 12.8% | 31.0% | 36.1% |
| Madeline Gill | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 16.1% | 18.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 1.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 14.6% | 17.2% | 11.7% | 3.6% |
| Meredith Carroll | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 6.8% | 1.5% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 8.6% | 22.1% | 53.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.