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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy0.52+5.92vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University1.37+2.74vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.72+1.14vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University-0.84+3.55vs Predicted
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5George Washington University0.93+0.94vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.68+0.30vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-0.92vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.79-4.34vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.54-1.12vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-3.40vs Predicted
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11American University-0.91-0.56vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.97-1.34vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia-0.72-2.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.92U. S. Naval Academy0.525.0%1st Place
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4.74Georgetown University1.3713.6%1st Place
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4.14University of Pennsylvania1.7217.4%1st Place
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7.55Christopher Newport University-0.844.3%1st Place
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5.94George Washington University0.937.8%1st Place
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6.3Old Dominion University0.687.3%1st Place
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6.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.918.6%1st Place
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3.66Cornell University1.7921.4%1st Place
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7.88Fordham University0.544.0%1st Place
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6.6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.676.7%1st Place
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10.44American University-0.911.1%1st Place
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10.66Princeton University-0.970.9%1st Place
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10.08University of Virginia-0.721.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aubin Hattendorf | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 1.7% |
| Riley Kloc | 13.6% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Torrey Chisari | 17.4% | 15.5% | 14.3% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Laura Smith | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 2.9% |
| Avery Canavan | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Megan Geith | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Sophia Devling | 21.4% | 17.5% | 16.2% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 3.8% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Anika Liner | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 13.0% | 21.1% | 30.3% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 20.7% | 35.2% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 15.2% | 21.4% | 22.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.