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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy4.16+3.88vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.27+2.60vs Predicted
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3Washington College3.65+3.45vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.68+5.55vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University4.67-1.40vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.50+4.30vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.61-0.40vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-2.32vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College3.00-0.31vs Predicted
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11Columbia University2.13+0.26vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.23-0.96vs Predicted
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13Hampton University1.84-0.88vs Predicted
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14Cornell University3.27-6.25vs Predicted
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15Colgate University0.49+0.16vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia1.69-3.49vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.13-1.31vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-10.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.88U. S. Naval Academy4.160.1%1st Place
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4.6St. Mary's College of Maryland4.270.1%1st Place
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6.45Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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9.55University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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3.6Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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10.3Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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6.6Old Dominion University3.610.1%1st Place
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5.68Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.69SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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11.26Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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11.04George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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12.12Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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7.75Cornell University3.270.1%1st Place
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15.16Colgate University0.490.0%1st Place
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12.51University of Virginia1.690.0%1st Place
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15.69Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
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7.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Sterling | 13.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Kirkland | 14.3% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 0.2% |
| Evan Aras | 22.5% | 19.1% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Alan Alkins | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austen Anderson | 10.3% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Green | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 6.7% | 1.9% |
| Meredith Carroll | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 15.3% | 11.1% | 6.4% | 1.0% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 13.8% | 19.7% | 10.1% | 3.0% |
| Philip Alley | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Beals | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 30.5% | 37.0% |
| Chris Kennedy | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 18.9% | 14.8% | 5.0% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 9.7% | 23.4% | 51.4% |
| Daniel Liberty | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.