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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.78+2.75vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.10+1.13vs Predicted
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3University of South Carolina1.18+2.65vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University1.53+0.74vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida0.36+2.14vs Predicted
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6Embry-Riddle University-0.52+4.39vs Predicted
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7The Citadel1.22-0.08vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia0.02+0.93vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.26-3.57vs Predicted
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10University of Maryland0.04-1.22vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland/Baltimore County-1.43+1.57vs Predicted
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12University of North Carolina-2.19+2.24vs Predicted
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13Clemson University0.23-4.47vs Predicted
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14University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.48-0.71vs Predicted
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15William and Mary-1.42-3.63vs Predicted
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16Florida Institute of Technology-0.29-4.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.75North Carolina State University1.7818.1%1st Place
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3.13Jacksonville University2.1024.8%1st Place
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5.65University of South Carolina1.188.8%1st Place
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4.74North Carolina State University1.5311.9%1st Place
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7.14University of South Florida0.365.0%1st Place
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10.39Embry-Riddle University-0.521.9%1st Place
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6.92The Citadel1.224.9%1st Place
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8.93University of Virginia0.023.3%1st Place
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5.43North Carolina State University1.2610.7%1st Place
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8.78University of Maryland0.042.9%1st Place
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12.57University of Maryland/Baltimore County-1.430.9%1st Place
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14.24University of North Carolina-2.190.4%1st Place
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8.53Clemson University0.233.4%1st Place
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13.29University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.480.4%1st Place
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11.37William and Mary-1.421.3%1st Place
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11.14Florida Institute of Technology-0.291.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larson | 18.1% | 17.0% | 17.5% | 15.1% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Bannasch | 24.8% | 23.2% | 16.0% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Manley | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Usher | 11.9% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Volk | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Zechariah Frantz | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 6.5% | 2.6% |
| Gregory Walters | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Connor Lothrop | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Olivia Sowa | 10.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William McCollum | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| John TIS | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 16.1% | 21.2% | 16.2% |
| Matthias Pietrus | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 19.4% | 45.8% |
| Rowan Barnes | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Felicity Davies | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 9.6% | 15.0% | 24.6% | 24.3% |
| Audrey Craig | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 14.6% | 15.8% | 11.2% | 5.4% |
| Brandon DePalma | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 14.3% | 10.3% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.