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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.00+7.93vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy4.16+3.08vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.67+0.79vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+1.83vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+2.16vs Predicted
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6Hampton University1.84+6.58vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.61-0.27vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.50+2.35vs Predicted
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9Washington College3.65-2.51vs Predicted
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10Cornell University3.27-1.95vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.23+0.51vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland4.27-7.02vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.68-3.27vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia1.69-1.24vs Predicted
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15Ocean County College1.73-2.06vs Predicted
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16Colgate University0.49-0.11vs Predicted
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17Columbia University2.13-5.19vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.13-1.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.93SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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5.08U. S. Naval Academy4.160.1%1st Place
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3.79Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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5.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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7.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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12.58Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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6.73Old Dominion University3.610.1%1st Place
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10.35Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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6.49Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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8.05Cornell University3.270.1%1st Place
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11.51George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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4.98St. Mary's College of Maryland4.270.1%1st Place
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9.73University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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12.76University of Virginia1.690.0%1st Place
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12.94Ocean County College1.730.0%1st Place
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15.89Colgate University0.490.0%1st Place
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11.81Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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16.37Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Green | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Martin Sterling | 10.1% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 14.4% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Aras | 18.7% | 19.6% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austen Anderson | 10.6% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% |
| Alan Alkins | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Michael Whitford | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 6.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Meredith Carroll | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| Jesse Kirkland | 14.3% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 3.2% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Chris Kennedy | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 13.8% | 15.1% | 10.8% | 3.9% |
| Bradford Wright | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 15.6% | 11.7% | 4.1% |
| Morgan Beals | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 12.4% | 29.2% | 33.0% |
| David Coplon | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 1.5% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 7.9% | 22.3% | 51.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.