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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.27+3.58vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.67+1.64vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy4.16+1.99vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College3.00+4.57vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+0.72vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.68+3.75vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.50+3.14vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-1.06vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University3.61-2.29vs Predicted
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10Washington College3.65-3.68vs Predicted
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11Cornell University3.27-3.24vs Predicted
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12Hampton University1.84+0.10vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.23-1.93vs Predicted
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15Columbia University2.13-3.56vs Predicted
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16Colgate University0.49-0.98vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia1.69-4.47vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.13-2.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.58St. Mary's College of Maryland4.270.2%1st Place
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3.64Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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4.99U. S. Naval Academy4.160.1%1st Place
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8.57SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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5.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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9.75University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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10.14Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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6.94U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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6.71Old Dominion University3.610.1%1st Place
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6.32Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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7.76Cornell University3.270.1%1st Place
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12.1Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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11.07George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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11.44Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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15.02Colgate University0.490.0%1st Place
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12.53University of Virginia1.690.0%1st Place
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15.73Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Kirkland | 15.2% | 15.1% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Aras | 22.0% | 18.7% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martin Sterling | 12.0% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Green | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Austen Anderson | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 0.2% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Daniel Liberty | 7.8% | 5.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alan Alkins | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 12.7% | 14.6% | 17.6% | 11.4% | 2.9% |
| Meredith Carroll | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 11.1% | 5.4% | 2.7% |
| David Coplon | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 7.7% | 1.7% |
| Morgan Beals | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 10.9% | 31.2% | 34.2% |
| Chris Kennedy | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 14.7% | 18.6% | 12.9% | 4.9% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 8.6% | 23.0% | 52.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.