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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College3.65+5.34vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.27+2.56vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.00+5.61vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.61+2.64vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+0.64vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy4.16-0.86vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+0.15vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.68+1.46vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University4.67-5.20vs Predicted
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10Columbia University2.13+1.32vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia1.83+1.18vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.23-1.00vs Predicted
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13Cornell University3.27-5.20vs Predicted
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14Colgate University0.49+1.20vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.50-4.83vs Predicted
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17Hampton University1.84-4.74vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.13-2.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.34Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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4.56St. Mary's College of Maryland4.270.2%1st Place
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8.61SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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6.64Old Dominion University3.610.1%1st Place
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5.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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5.14U. S. Naval Academy4.160.1%1st Place
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7.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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9.46University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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3.8Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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11.32Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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12.18University of Virginia1.830.0%1st Place
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11.0George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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7.8Cornell University3.270.1%1st Place
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15.2Colgate University0.490.0%1st Place
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10.17Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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12.26Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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15.72Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Whitford | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Kirkland | 15.4% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Green | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Alan Alkins | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Austen Anderson | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martin Sterling | 12.0% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Evan Aras | 18.0% | 19.2% | 17.0% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 12.0% | 6.1% | 1.9% |
| Madeline Gill | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 13.3% | 20.0% | 11.6% | 4.3% |
| Meredith Carroll | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 5.9% | 1.5% |
| Philip Alley | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Morgan Beals | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 10.7% | 32.5% | 35.4% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 2.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 15.1% | 14.8% | 12.6% | 4.3% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 8.4% | 25.5% | 50.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.