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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.45+6.22vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.48+4.49vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+3.95vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.66+8.18vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.79+3.91vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.38+1.25vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.54+5.68vs Predicted
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8Princeton University1.87+4.22vs Predicted
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9Washington College1.66+3.38vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.89+1.83vs Predicted
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11Boston College1.97-1.58vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida1.45-0.36vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-5.96vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.21-0.50vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.59-2.91vs Predicted
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16Brown University1.78-5.40vs Predicted
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17Yale University1.90-7.78vs Predicted
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18Tulane University1.84-8.58vs Predicted
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19Dartmouth College1.95-10.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.22Roger Williams University2.459.4%1st Place
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6.49Harvard University2.489.8%1st Place
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6.95University of Rhode Island2.788.6%1st Place
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12.18U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.662.7%1st Place
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8.91Boston University1.794.7%1st Place
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7.25Bowdoin College2.388.8%1st Place
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12.68Tufts University1.542.5%1st Place
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12.22Princeton University1.872.9%1st Place
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12.38Washington College1.662.2%1st Place
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11.83Fordham University1.893.1%1st Place
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9.42Boston College1.975.3%1st Place
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11.64University of South Florida1.452.6%1st Place
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7.04Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.3110.8%1st Place
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13.5Christopher Newport University1.211.8%1st Place
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12.09Northeastern University1.593.4%1st Place
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10.6Brown University1.783.6%1st Place
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9.22Yale University1.905.9%1st Place
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9.42Tulane University1.845.4%1st Place
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8.98Dartmouth College1.956.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Hoogland | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Bryan Trammell | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 11.8% |
| Connor Mraz | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 10.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.8% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% |
| Peter Joslin | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% |
| Sam Bruce | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Brian Fox | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 18.9% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.4% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% |
| Nathan Sih | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
| Matheo Graham-capasso | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.