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📊 Prediction Accuracy
10.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College1.66+10.90vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.78+4.88vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+3.85vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.45+2.99vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.79+3.97vs Predicted
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6Tulane University1.84+3.32vs Predicted
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7Princeton University1.87+5.00vs Predicted
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8Boston College1.97+1.42vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.66+2.72vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.89+1.46vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College1.95-2.08vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.60+2.49vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.08-3.83vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.90-4.99vs Predicted
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15Harvard University2.48-8.60vs Predicted
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16Brown University1.78-5.56vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.54-4.47vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida1.45-6.83vs Predicted
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19Northeastern University1.17-6.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.9Washington College1.663.6%1st Place
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6.88University of Rhode Island2.789.6%1st Place
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6.85Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.319.9%1st Place
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6.99Roger Williams University2.458.5%1st Place
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8.97Boston University1.796.3%1st Place
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9.32Tulane University1.845.0%1st Place
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12.0Princeton University1.873.4%1st Place
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9.42Boston College1.974.8%1st Place
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11.72U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.663.0%1st Place
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11.46Fordham University1.892.9%1st Place
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8.92Dartmouth College1.955.5%1st Place
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14.49Christopher Newport University0.601.5%1st Place
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9.17Bowdoin College2.085.7%1st Place
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9.01Yale University1.905.8%1st Place
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6.4Harvard University2.4810.4%1st Place
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10.44Brown University1.785.0%1st Place
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12.53Tufts University1.542.4%1st Place
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11.17University of South Florida1.453.6%1st Place
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12.36Northeastern University1.173.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Tyler Mowry | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Matheo Graham-capasso | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.1% |
| Peter Joslin | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 28.0% |
| Christopher Lukens | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Nathan Sih | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% |
| Bryan Trammell | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 10.4% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.5% |
| Ted Bjerregaard | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 10.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.