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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.27+3.20vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.00+4.83vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University4.67-0.59vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+1.64vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy4.16-1.44vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.61-0.88vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia1.83+3.36vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.68-0.25vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.50-0.71vs Predicted
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12Cornell University3.27-4.86vs Predicted
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13Washington College3.65-7.15vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.23-3.86vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.13-0.33vs Predicted
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16Hampton University1.84-4.80vs Predicted
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17Columbia University2.13-6.39vs Predicted
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18Colgate University0.49-3.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.270.2%1st Place
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7.83SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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3.41Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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6.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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4.56U. S. Naval Academy4.160.1%1st Place
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6.12Old Dominion University3.610.1%1st Place
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11.36University of Virginia1.830.0%1st Place
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8.75University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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9.29Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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7.14Cornell University3.270.1%1st Place
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5.85Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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10.14George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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14.67Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
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11.2Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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10.61Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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14.25Colgate University0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Kirkland | 16.2% | 16.2% | 14.7% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Green | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Evan Aras | 24.1% | 16.9% | 18.3% | 13.2% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martin Sterling | 13.3% | 15.2% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alan Alkins | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Gill | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 18.8% | 14.3% | 3.5% |
| Michael Russom | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Philip Alley | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 10.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Carroll | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 1.6% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 22.6% | 52.3% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 17.3% | 10.5% | 3.6% |
| David Coplon | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 8.9% | 1.6% |
| Morgan Beals | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 12.5% | 29.9% | 36.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.