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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College3.65+5.30vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+3.69vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.68+6.59vs Predicted
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4Cornell University3.27+3.78vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland4.27-0.42vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+1.18vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.61-0.41vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University4.67-4.29vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College3.00-0.26vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.50+0.12vs Predicted
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11Columbia University2.13+0.37vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia1.83+0.16vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.23-2.87vs Predicted
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15Hampton University1.84-2.73vs Predicted
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16Colgate University0.49-0.90vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy4.16-12.06vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.13-2.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.3Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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5.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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9.59University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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7.78Cornell University3.270.1%1st Place
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4.58St. Mary's College of Maryland4.270.1%1st Place
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7.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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6.59Old Dominion University3.610.1%1st Place
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3.71Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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8.74SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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10.12Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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11.37Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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12.16University of Virginia1.830.0%1st Place
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11.13George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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12.27Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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15.1Colgate University0.490.0%1st Place
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4.94U. S. Naval Academy4.160.1%1st Place
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15.75Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Whitford | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Austen Anderson | 10.1% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Philip Alley | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Kirkland | 14.8% | 14.2% | 14.3% | 14.4% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alan Alkins | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Aras | 23.6% | 16.2% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Green | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| David Coplon | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 14.8% | 13.6% | 7.9% | 1.9% |
| Madeline Gill | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 16.1% | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% |
| Meredith Carroll | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 18.9% | 13.1% | 3.0% |
| Morgan Beals | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 11.4% | 31.0% | 35.1% |
| Martin Sterling | 10.2% | 14.8% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 23.6% | 52.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.