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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.05+5.59vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.60+6.31vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.42+6.67vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.38+4.70vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.49+3.49vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+2.04vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.38+1.79vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.59+3.90vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.51-0.07vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.75-1.63vs Predicted
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11Stanford University2.44-2.42vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.42-4.75vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University-1.38-0.49vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.36-0.64vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-4.73vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.53-3.47vs Predicted
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17Brown University2.85-9.38vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.82-6.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.59Harvard University3.0510.2%1st Place
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8.31U. S. Naval Academy2.606.5%1st Place
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9.67University of Pennsylvania2.424.2%1st Place
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8.7Cornell University2.386.2%1st Place
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8.49College of Charleston2.496.5%1st Place
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8.04St. Mary's College of Maryland2.657.2%1st Place
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8.79Dartmouth College2.386.9%1st Place
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11.9Old Dominion University1.593.0%1st Place
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8.93SUNY Maritime College2.515.9%1st Place
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8.37Georgetown University2.755.8%1st Place
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8.58Stanford University2.446.5%1st Place
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7.25Yale University2.428.9%1st Place
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12.51Jacksonville University-1.382.8%1st Place
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13.36University of Wisconsin1.361.7%1st Place
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10.27Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.5%1st Place
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12.53Fordham University1.532.7%1st Place
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7.62Brown University2.856.7%1st Place
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11.09George Washington University1.823.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 2.8% |
| Hayden Earl | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Leo Boucher | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| William Michels | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 11.8% |
| Benton Amthor | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Chapman Petersen | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Carmen Cowles | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Emily Allen | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 17.6% |
| Reed Weston | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 24.6% |
| Will Murray | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% |
| Michael Burns | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 17.5% |
| Connor Nelson | 6.7% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.