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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+7.19vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+6.67vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University-1.38+9.28vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.05vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.51+3.87vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.53+6.83vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.81+5.02vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.85-0.72vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.42-1.81vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+0.44vs Predicted
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11Stanford University2.44-2.35vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.42-2.27vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin1.36+0.20vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University2.75-5.57vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.82-3.94vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston2.49-7.41vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College2.38-8.13vs Predicted
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18Harvard University3.05-11.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.19St. Mary's College of Maryland2.656.6%1st Place
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8.67Cornell University2.385.7%1st Place
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12.28Jacksonville University-1.382.8%1st Place
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8.05U. S. Naval Academy2.607.0%1st Place
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8.87SUNY Maritime College2.515.8%1st Place
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12.83Fordham University1.532.4%1st Place
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12.02Old Dominion University1.812.2%1st Place
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7.28Brown University2.859.4%1st Place
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7.19Yale University2.429.6%1st Place
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10.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.163.3%1st Place
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8.65Stanford University2.445.3%1st Place
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9.73University of Pennsylvania2.424.9%1st Place
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13.2University of Wisconsin1.361.9%1st Place
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8.43Georgetown University2.757.4%1st Place
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11.06George Washington University1.823.8%1st Place
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8.59College of Charleston2.495.0%1st Place
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8.87Dartmouth College2.385.9%1st Place
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6.63Harvard University3.0511.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Hayden Earl | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Emily Allen | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 16.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.0% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Benton Amthor | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| Michael Burns | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 18.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 12.9% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Carmen Cowles | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Will Murray | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.1% |
| Chapman Petersen | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% |
| Reed Weston | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 15.3% | 21.9% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.0% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| William Michels | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.2% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.