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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.38+7.75vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.85+5.55vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+5.06vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.42+3.15vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.42+3.93vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.51+2.92vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.24vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.53+4.52vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.38-0.17vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.05-3.34vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.49-2.79vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University-1.38+0.71vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.59-1.40vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.42-4.30vs Predicted
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15Stanford University2.44-6.38vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.82-4.72vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.36-3.84vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy2.60-9.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.75Cornell University2.385.1%1st Place
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7.55Brown University2.858.3%1st Place
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8.06St. Mary's College of Maryland2.657.5%1st Place
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7.15Yale University2.429.7%1st Place
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8.93Georgetown University2.426.0%1st Place
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8.92SUNY Maritime College2.515.5%1st Place
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10.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.5%1st Place
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12.52Fordham University1.532.0%1st Place
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8.83Dartmouth College2.386.7%1st Place
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6.66Harvard University3.059.0%1st Place
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8.21College of Charleston2.496.9%1st Place
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12.71Jacksonville University-1.382.5%1st Place
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11.6Old Dominion University1.593.2%1st Place
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9.7University of Pennsylvania2.424.0%1st Place
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8.62Stanford University2.446.4%1st Place
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11.28George Washington University1.823.0%1st Place
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13.16University of Wisconsin1.362.2%1st Place
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8.12U. S. Naval Academy2.607.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Earl | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Leo Boucher | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| Carmen Cowles | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Enzo Menditto | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Benton Amthor | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Will Murray | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 4.9% |
| Michael Burns | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 17.4% |
| William Michels | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Emily Allen | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 13.7% | 16.9% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 11.5% |
| Jordan Bruce | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.8% |
| Chapman Petersen | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% |
| Reed Weston | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 23.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.