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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.38+7.30vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.85+4.75vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.91+3.16vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+3.85vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.18+0.32vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.57+6.34vs Predicted
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7U. S. Military Academy2.05+2.62vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.30-2.58vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.68+1.42vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University1.20+3.22vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.40-2.83vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-1.57vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.59-2.43vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.28-5.44vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin0.36+0.03vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.88-5.40vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-5.16vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.86-7.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.3College of Charleston2.385.8%1st Place
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6.75Yale University2.8510.0%1st Place
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6.16Brown University2.919.8%1st Place
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7.85St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.9%1st Place
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5.32Harvard University3.1812.4%1st Place
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12.34Old Dominion University1.572.4%1st Place
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9.62U. S. Military Academy2.054.1%1st Place
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5.42Stanford University3.3012.5%1st Place
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10.42Cornell University1.684.1%1st Place
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13.22Jacksonville University1.201.8%1st Place
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8.17Georgetown University2.406.8%1st Place
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10.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.1%1st Place
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10.57University of Pennsylvania1.594.0%1st Place
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8.56U. S. Naval Academy2.285.9%1st Place
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15.03University of Wisconsin0.360.9%1st Place
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10.6SUNY Maritime College1.883.4%1st Place
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11.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.412.1%1st Place
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10.4George Washington University1.864.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Stephan Baker | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Justin Callahan | 12.4% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 13.6% | 10.5% |
| James Paul | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 12.5% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 3.2% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 16.7% | 16.3% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 3.4% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 42.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 3.9% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 7.8% |
| Owen Timms | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 3.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.