← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Washington College3.65+5.35vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+3.70vs Predicted
-
3Georgetown University4.67+0.72vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Naval Academy4.16+1.03vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+1.95vs Predicted
-
6Fordham University2.50+4.36vs Predicted
-
7George Washington University2.23+4.01vs Predicted
-
8St. Mary's College of Maryland4.27-3.41vs Predicted
-
9Old Dominion University3.61-2.26vs Predicted
-
10SUNY Maritime College3.00-1.51vs Predicted
-
11University of Pennsylvania2.68-1.28vs Predicted
-
12Columbia University2.13-0.68vs Predicted
-
13University of Virginia1.83-0.78vs Predicted
-
14Cornell University3.27-6.22vs Predicted
-
15Princeton University0.13+0.61vs Predicted
-
16Hampton University1.84-3.80vs Predicted
-
18Colgate University0.49-2.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.35Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
-
5.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
-
3.72Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
-
5.03U. S. Naval Academy4.160.1%1st Place
-
6.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
-
10.36Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
-
11.01George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
-
4.59St. Mary's College of Maryland4.270.1%1st Place
-
6.74Old Dominion University3.610.1%1st Place
-
8.49SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
-
9.72University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
-
11.32Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
-
12.22University of Virginia1.830.0%1st Place
-
7.78Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
-
15.61Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
-
12.2Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
-
15.22Colgate University0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Whitford | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Austen Anderson | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Aras | 20.1% | 19.7% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martin Sterling | 12.4% | 13.4% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
| Meredith Carroll | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 5.2% | 1.3% |
| Jesse Kirkland | 14.9% | 14.8% | 13.7% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alan Alkins | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ted Green | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Michael Russom | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| David Coplon | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 1.2% |
| Madeline Gill | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 16.4% | 17.5% | 11.2% | 4.8% |
| Philip Alley | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 23.8% | 51.3% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 16.8% | 11.9% | 3.5% |
| Morgan Beals | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 31.3% | 36.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.