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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.91+5.36vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.85+4.62vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.18+2.13vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.38+4.24vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.88+5.71vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.86+4.57vs Predicted
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7U. S. Military Academy2.05+2.72vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.40+0.34vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.57+3.26vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-2.19vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.30-5.75vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.59-1.32vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.20+0.02vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.28-5.26vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin0.36-0.09vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-4.18vs Predicted
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17Cornell University1.68-6.49vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-7.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.36Brown University2.919.8%1st Place
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6.62Yale University2.859.9%1st Place
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5.13Harvard University3.1814.3%1st Place
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8.24College of Charleston2.386.0%1st Place
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10.71SUNY Maritime College1.884.0%1st Place
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10.57George Washington University1.863.1%1st Place
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9.72U. S. Military Academy2.054.8%1st Place
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8.34Georgetown University2.405.5%1st Place
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12.26Old Dominion University1.572.2%1st Place
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7.81St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.2%1st Place
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5.25Stanford University3.3014.0%1st Place
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10.68University of Pennsylvania1.593.1%1st Place
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13.02Jacksonville University1.201.2%1st Place
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8.74U. S. Naval Academy2.285.2%1st Place
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14.91University of Wisconsin0.360.9%1st Place
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11.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.412.2%1st Place
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10.51Cornell University1.683.2%1st Place
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10.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam O'Keefe | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 14.3% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.5% |
| Owen Timms | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 3.4% |
| James Paul | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 11.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 14.0% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.1% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 15.9% | 16.4% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 14.2% | 40.6% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 8.2% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 3.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.