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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.91+5.32vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+8.24vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.38+5.47vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+7.84vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.85+1.69vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+1.76vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.90+3.08vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.57+4.31vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.86+1.62vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.40-1.66vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.18-5.74vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.88-1.41vs Predicted
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13Stanford University3.30-7.45vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.68-3.42vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.28-6.36vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy2.05-6.43vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin0.36-1.87vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University1.20-4.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.32Brown University2.9110.1%1st Place
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10.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.8%1st Place
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8.47College of Charleston2.385.4%1st Place
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11.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.412.1%1st Place
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6.69Yale University2.859.1%1st Place
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7.76St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.3%1st Place
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10.08University of Pennsylvania1.904.0%1st Place
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12.31Old Dominion University1.572.2%1st Place
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10.62George Washington University1.862.4%1st Place
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8.34Georgetown University2.406.4%1st Place
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5.26Harvard University3.1813.1%1st Place
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10.59SUNY Maritime College1.883.0%1st Place
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5.55Stanford University3.3012.8%1st Place
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10.58Cornell University1.683.1%1st Place
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8.64U. S. Naval Academy2.285.9%1st Place
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9.57U. S. Military Academy2.055.0%1st Place
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15.13University of Wisconsin0.361.1%1st Place
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13.01Jacksonville University1.202.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam O'Keefe | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 8.6% |
| Stephan Baker | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 10.4% |
| Owen Timms | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 3.9% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Justin Callahan | 13.1% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.1% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 12.8% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| James Paul | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 15.0% | 43.2% |
| Brent Penwarden | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 16.1% | 14.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.