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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+5.78vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+8.36vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.91+3.39vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.18+1.36vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.30+0.41vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston2.38+2.29vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.68+3.54vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.90+2.08vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.86+1.30vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.40-1.51vs Predicted
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11U. S. Military Academy2.05-1.36vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-4.09vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-1.31vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.28-5.33vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.57-2.73vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.88-5.35vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University1.20-3.92vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.36-2.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.78Yale University2.858.9%1st Place
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10.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.4%1st Place
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6.39Brown University2.919.5%1st Place
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5.36Harvard University3.1813.5%1st Place
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5.41Stanford University3.3012.8%1st Place
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8.29College of Charleston2.385.2%1st Place
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10.54Cornell University1.683.7%1st Place
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10.08University of Pennsylvania1.904.2%1st Place
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10.3George Washington University1.864.2%1st Place
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8.49Georgetown University2.407.1%1st Place
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9.64U. S. Military Academy2.053.7%1st Place
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7.91St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.8%1st Place
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11.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.412.5%1st Place
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8.67U. S. Naval Academy2.285.5%1st Place
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12.27Old Dominion University1.572.9%1st Place
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10.65SUNY Maritime College1.883.3%1st Place
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13.08Jacksonville University1.201.9%1st Place
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15.11University of Wisconsin0.360.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 2.7% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 13.5% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 12.8% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.3% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% |
| Owen Timms | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.4% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| James Paul | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 7.0% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 11.7% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 4.2% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 15.9% | 15.8% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 15.5% | 42.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.