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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.28+7.41vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.85+4.75vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+7.48vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.30+1.44vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.68+5.38vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.91+0.31vs Predicted
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7U. S. Military Academy2.05+2.71vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.88+2.51vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-0.89vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.86+0.48vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.38-2.67vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.18-6.72vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.40-4.50vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.20-0.90vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.57-2.64vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania1.90-6.04vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-5.30vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.36-2.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.41U. S. Naval Academy2.285.9%1st Place
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6.75Yale University2.858.9%1st Place
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10.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.1%1st Place
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5.44Stanford University3.3011.6%1st Place
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10.38Cornell University1.683.9%1st Place
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6.31Brown University2.9110.6%1st Place
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9.71U. S. Military Academy2.053.7%1st Place
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10.51SUNY Maritime College1.883.4%1st Place
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8.11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.5%1st Place
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10.48George Washington University1.863.4%1st Place
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8.33College of Charleston2.387.2%1st Place
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5.28Harvard University3.1813.1%1st Place
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8.5Georgetown University2.405.7%1st Place
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13.1Jacksonville University1.201.8%1st Place
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12.36Old Dominion University1.572.5%1st Place
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9.96University of Pennsylvania1.904.3%1st Place
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11.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.413.4%1st Place
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15.19University of Wisconsin0.361.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Welburn | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Stephan Baker | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 3.4% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 11.6% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.6% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| James Paul | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Owen Timms | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 3.8% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Justin Callahan | 13.1% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 16.2% | 15.7% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 14.1% | 11.1% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 2.5% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 7.3% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 43.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.