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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.90+9.19vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.85+4.62vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.28+5.65vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.91+2.35vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.86+5.50vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston2.38+2.43vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+0.72vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.88+2.72vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.30-3.76vs Predicted
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10U. S. Military Academy2.05-0.40vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.40-2.64vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.18-6.76vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-1.20vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-3.65vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.68-4.38vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.57-3.65vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University1.20-3.89vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.36-2.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.19University of Pennsylvania1.903.2%1st Place
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6.62Yale University2.8510.5%1st Place
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8.65U. S. Naval Academy2.286.1%1st Place
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6.35Brown University2.9110.1%1st Place
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10.5George Washington University1.862.9%1st Place
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8.43College of Charleston2.385.5%1st Place
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7.72St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.0%1st Place
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10.72SUNY Maritime College1.883.1%1st Place
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5.24Stanford University3.3012.8%1st Place
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9.6U. S. Military Academy2.054.2%1st Place
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8.36Georgetown University2.406.2%1st Place
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5.24Harvard University3.1814.5%1st Place
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11.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.412.7%1st Place
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10.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.8%1st Place
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10.62Cornell University1.683.4%1st Place
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12.35Old Dominion University1.572.5%1st Place
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13.11Jacksonville University1.201.6%1st Place
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15.13University of Wisconsin0.360.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Garcon | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
| Stephan Baker | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Jack Welburn | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Owen Timms | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 3.9% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 4.3% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 12.8% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| James Paul | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 2.0% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Justin Callahan | 14.5% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 7.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 3.2% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 3.5% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 10.8% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 15.9% | 16.4% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 43.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.