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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.38+7.29vs Predicted
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2U. S. Military Academy2.05+7.58vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.91+3.37vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.18+1.23vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20+4.15vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.30-0.46vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+3.18vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.68+2.38vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.20+3.82vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.57+2.48vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.86-0.65vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-4.05vs Predicted
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13Yale University2.85-6.21vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.88-3.38vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.90-4.87vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-4.44vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy2.28-8.45vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.36-2.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.29College of Charleston2.386.2%1st Place
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9.58U. S. Military Academy2.053.5%1st Place
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6.37Brown University2.9110.2%1st Place
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5.23Harvard University3.1813.4%1st Place
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9.15Georgetown University2.205.2%1st Place
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5.54Stanford University3.3013.1%1st Place
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10.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.2%1st Place
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10.38Cornell University1.684.2%1st Place
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12.82Jacksonville University1.202.5%1st Place
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12.48Old Dominion University1.571.8%1st Place
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10.35George Washington University1.863.7%1st Place
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7.95St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.2%1st Place
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6.79Yale University2.859.3%1st Place
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10.62SUNY Maritime College1.883.9%1st Place
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10.13University of Pennsylvania1.904.5%1st Place
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11.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.412.5%1st Place
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8.55U. S. Naval Academy2.285.1%1st Place
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15.03University of Wisconsin0.360.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| James Paul | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 13.4% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Diego Escobar | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 13.1% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 3.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.6% |
| Brent Penwarden | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 15.3% |
| Parker Purrington | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 12.1% |
| Owen Timms | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Stephan Baker | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.3% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 7.4% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 14.7% | 41.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.