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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.38+7.30vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.91+4.21vs Predicted
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3U. S. Military Academy2.05+6.30vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University1.20+8.86vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.68+5.24vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+1.70vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.85-0.26vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.18-2.77vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.28-0.41vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.30-4.83vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.59-0.57vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-1.80vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College1.88-2.43vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-2.41vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University2.20-6.14vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.57-3.72vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.44-5.34vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.36-2.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.3College of Charleston2.385.9%1st Place
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6.21Brown University2.9111.8%1st Place
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9.3U. S. Military Academy2.054.7%1st Place
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12.86Jacksonville University1.201.6%1st Place
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10.24Cornell University1.683.8%1st Place
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7.7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.6%1st Place
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6.74Yale University2.858.2%1st Place
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5.23Harvard University3.1813.4%1st Place
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8.59U. S. Naval Academy2.285.2%1st Place
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5.17Stanford University3.3013.6%1st Place
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10.43University of Pennsylvania1.594.2%1st Place
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10.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.7%1st Place
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10.57SUNY Maritime College1.884.2%1st Place
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11.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.412.4%1st Place
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8.86Georgetown University2.204.5%1st Place
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12.28Old Dominion University1.572.1%1st Place
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11.66George Washington University1.443.4%1st Place
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15.05University of Wisconsin0.361.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 11.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Paul | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 15.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 2.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Stephan Baker | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 13.4% | 14.0% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 13.6% | 13.9% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 2.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 3.7% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 7.2% |
| Diego Escobar | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 10.2% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 7.8% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 14.1% | 42.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.