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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.30+4.37vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.18+3.31vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.28+5.37vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+3.72vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.91+1.19vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston2.38+2.41vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.20+1.84vs Predicted
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8U. S. Military Academy2.05+1.36vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+2.48vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.68+0.17vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.85-4.40vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.44-0.12vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.20-0.23vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.57-1.76vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.59-4.43vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-5.86vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College1.88-6.46vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.36-2.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.37Stanford University3.3012.7%1st Place
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5.31Harvard University3.1813.4%1st Place
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8.37U. S. Naval Academy2.285.8%1st Place
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7.72St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.2%1st Place
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6.19Brown University2.9110.9%1st Place
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8.41College of Charleston2.385.1%1st Place
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8.84Georgetown University2.205.2%1st Place
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9.36U. S. Military Academy2.055.3%1st Place
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11.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.412.7%1st Place
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10.17Cornell University1.683.8%1st Place
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6.6Yale University2.859.0%1st Place
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11.88George Washington University1.442.6%1st Place
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12.77Jacksonville University1.201.8%1st Place
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12.24Old Dominion University1.572.1%1st Place
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10.57University of Pennsylvania1.593.4%1st Place
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10.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.2%1st Place
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10.54SUNY Maritime College1.884.0%1st Place
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15.03University of Wisconsin0.360.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 12.7% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 13.4% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Diego Escobar | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| James Paul | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 6.8% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% |
| Stephan Baker | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 8.1% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 15.7% | 14.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 9.9% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 3.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 3.8% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 14.1% | 42.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.