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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.61+2.06vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+1.74vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13+4.86vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii1.70+1.86vs Predicted
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5Boston University0.86+2.76vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy1.20+0.75vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.98+1.06vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.74+1.76vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles1.79-3.53vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California0.90-2.24vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University0.67-2.57vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-3.19vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.68-4.54vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-1.81-0.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.06Stanford University2.6126.1%1st Place
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3.74University of California at Santa Barbara2.0419.4%1st Place
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7.86Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.134.5%1st Place
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5.86University of Hawaii1.708.5%1st Place
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7.76Boston University0.864.3%1st Place
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6.75California Poly Maritime Academy1.207.0%1st Place
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8.06University of California at Berkeley0.983.5%1st Place
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9.76Arizona State University0.742.3%1st Place
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5.47University of California at Los Angeles1.799.3%1st Place
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7.76University of Southern California0.904.0%1st Place
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8.43Western Washington University0.673.6%1st Place
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8.81University of California at Santa Cruz0.863.5%1st Place
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8.46University of California at San Diego0.683.7%1st Place
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13.23University of California at Irvine-1.810.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 26.1% | 21.8% | 18.8% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 19.4% | 18.5% | 15.3% | 13.9% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kai Ponting | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 1.9% |
| Owen Lahr | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Luu | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 1.5% |
| Ryan Downey | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 0.3% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 1.5% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 15.2% | 21.5% | 5.5% |
| Grant Janov | 9.3% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 1.1% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 3.7% |
| Noah Barton | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 2.5% |
| Sriskandha Kandimalla | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 6.2% | 80.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.