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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+2.62vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.61+1.11vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii1.70+2.97vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+4.81vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.79+0.46vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.98+2.08vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy1.20-0.19vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California0.90-0.22vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University0.67-0.32vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University0.74-0.38vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13-3.09vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego0.68-3.69vs Predicted
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13Boston University0.86-5.37vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-1.81-0.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.62University of California at Santa Barbara2.0419.9%1st Place
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3.11Stanford University2.6126.9%1st Place
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5.97University of Hawaii1.707.1%1st Place
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8.81University of California at Santa Cruz0.862.8%1st Place
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5.46University of California at Los Angeles1.799.6%1st Place
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8.08University of California at Berkeley0.984.8%1st Place
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6.81California Poly Maritime Academy1.206.4%1st Place
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7.78University of Southern California0.904.0%1st Place
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8.68Western Washington University0.673.7%1st Place
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9.62Arizona State University0.742.3%1st Place
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7.91Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.134.1%1st Place
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8.31University of California at San Diego0.683.5%1st Place
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7.63Boston University0.864.5%1st Place
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13.23University of California at Irvine-1.810.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kayda | 19.9% | 19.8% | 15.7% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 26.9% | 21.3% | 17.1% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Lahr | 7.1% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 2.8% |
| Grant Janov | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 2.1% |
| Ryan Downey | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 0.5% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 1.7% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 3.4% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 13.9% | 21.1% | 6.6% |
| Kai Ponting | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 1.3% |
| Noah Barton | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 1.8% |
| Benjamin Luu | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 1.1% |
| Sriskandha Kandimalla | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 78.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.