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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.61+2.05vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+1.71vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii1.70+2.94vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.68+4.40vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.90+2.77vs Predicted
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6Boston University0.86+1.74vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.79-1.64vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy1.20-1.28vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University0.67-0.41vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.98-1.81vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University0.74-1.37vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13-4.12vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-4.28vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-1.81-0.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.05Stanford University2.6127.1%1st Place
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3.71University of California at Santa Barbara2.0420.2%1st Place
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5.94University of Hawaii1.707.2%1st Place
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8.4University of California at San Diego0.683.5%1st Place
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7.77University of Southern California0.905.0%1st Place
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7.74Boston University0.865.2%1st Place
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5.36University of California at Los Angeles1.799.4%1st Place
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6.72California Poly Maritime Academy1.205.9%1st Place
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8.59Western Washington University0.673.2%1st Place
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8.19University of California at Berkeley0.983.4%1st Place
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9.63Arizona State University0.742.3%1st Place
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7.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.134.0%1st Place
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8.72University of California at Santa Cruz0.863.3%1st Place
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13.31University of California at Irvine-1.810.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michelle Lahrkamp | 27.1% | 22.8% | 17.1% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Chris Kayda | 20.2% | 18.3% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Owen Lahr | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
Noah Barton | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 2.4% |
Morgana Manti | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 1.0% |
Benjamin Luu | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 0.8% |
Grant Janov | 9.4% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Ryan Downey | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 0.4% |
Dalton Lovett | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 2.3% |
Nate Ingebritson | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 1.5% |
Aidan Boylan | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 20.8% | 5.8% |
Kai Ponting | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 1.5% |
Blake Roberts | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 2.9% |
Sriskandha Kandimalla | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 81.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.