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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.61+2.10vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+1.79vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.79+2.36vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii1.70+1.93vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.20+1.98vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13+1.91vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.98+0.96vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University0.67+0.74vs Predicted
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9Boston University0.86-1.45vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California0.90-2.34vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-2.06vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University0.74-2.38vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.68-4.75vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-1.81-0.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.1Stanford University2.6127.7%1st Place
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3.79University of California at Santa Barbara2.0418.4%1st Place
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5.36University of California at Los Angeles1.7910.0%1st Place
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5.93University of Hawaii1.707.5%1st Place
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6.98California Poly Maritime Academy1.205.4%1st Place
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7.91Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.134.4%1st Place
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7.96University of California at Berkeley0.984.7%1st Place
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8.74Western Washington University0.672.7%1st Place
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7.55Boston University0.864.9%1st Place
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7.66University of Southern California0.904.5%1st Place
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8.94University of California at Santa Cruz0.863.0%1st Place
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9.62Arizona State University0.742.5%1st Place
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8.25University of California at San Diego0.683.9%1st Place
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13.2University of California at Irvine-1.810.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 27.7% | 21.2% | 16.2% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 18.4% | 18.2% | 15.2% | 14.8% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 10.0% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Owen Lahr | 7.5% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Downey | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Kai Ponting | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 1.4% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 1.7% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 3.0% |
| Benjamin Luu | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 0.8% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 1.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 3.5% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 13.9% | 20.8% | 6.2% |
| Noah Barton | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 2.5% |
| Sriskandha Kandimalla | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 78.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.