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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+2.84vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.61+1.22vs Predicted
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3Western Washington University0.67+5.72vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.79+1.58vs Predicted
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5Boston University0.86+2.86vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University0.74+3.76vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13+1.09vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.98+0.18vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii2.41-4.95vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.68-1.48vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California0.90-3.12vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-3.23vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-1.81+0.32vs Predicted
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14California Poly Maritime Academy1.20-6.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.84University of California at Santa Barbara2.0418.4%1st Place
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3.22Stanford University2.6124.3%1st Place
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8.72Western Washington University0.672.6%1st Place
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5.58University of California at Los Angeles1.799.3%1st Place
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7.86Boston University0.863.5%1st Place
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9.76Arizona State University0.741.7%1st Place
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8.09Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.133.4%1st Place
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8.18University of California at Berkeley0.983.8%1st Place
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4.05University of Hawaii2.4117.2%1st Place
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8.52University of California at San Diego0.683.4%1st Place
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7.88University of Southern California0.904.2%1st Place
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8.77University of California at Santa Cruz0.862.6%1st Place
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13.32University of California at Irvine-1.810.3%1st Place
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7.21California Poly Maritime Academy1.205.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kayda | 18.4% | 17.8% | 15.0% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 24.3% | 21.5% | 17.0% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 1.4% |
| Grant Janov | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Luu | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 1.8% |
| Aidan Boylan | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 22.2% | 5.8% |
| Kai Ponting | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 1.8% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 1.8% |
| Erik Anderson | 17.2% | 16.2% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 2.8% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 1.4% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 2.7% |
| Sriskandha Kandimalla | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 7.5% | 79.8% |
| Ryan Downey | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.