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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.00+6.88vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.67+1.37vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy4.16+1.64vs Predicted
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4Cornell University3.27+3.32vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland4.27-0.72vs Predicted
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6Washington College3.65+0.19vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-0.39vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.68-0.03vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.50-0.09vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.23-0.51vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University3.61-5.71vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia1.83-1.28vs Predicted
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14Columbia University2.13-3.06vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.13+0.54vs Predicted
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16Colgate University0.49-1.12vs Predicted
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17Hampton University1.84-5.14vs Predicted
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18Ocean County College1.73-5.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.88SUNY Maritime College3.000.1%1st Place
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3.37Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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4.64U. S. Naval Academy4.160.1%1st Place
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7.32Cornell University3.270.1%1st Place
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4.28St. Mary's College of Maryland4.270.2%1st Place
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6.19Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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6.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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8.97University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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9.91Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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10.49George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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6.29Old Dominion University3.610.1%1st Place
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11.72University of Virginia1.830.0%1st Place
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10.94Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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15.54Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
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14.88Colgate University0.490.0%1st Place
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11.86Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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12.11Ocean County College1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Green | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Evan Aras | 23.0% | 20.4% | 16.6% | 13.5% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martin Sterling | 12.7% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Kirkland | 15.9% | 16.9% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 4.4% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Meredith Carroll | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Alan Alkins | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Gill | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 13.3% | 14.4% | 10.1% | 3.1% |
| David Coplon | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 1.7% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 9.0% | 21.1% | 52.1% |
| Morgan Beals | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 29.8% | 32.8% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 10.3% | 3.5% |
| Bradford Wright | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 16.8% | 13.0% | 4.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.